‘A done deal?’: The managing director of the Munich Security Conference believes that the ‘good cop, bad cop’ theory is the best explanation for the different approaches taken by Trump, Merz & Marcon

A few days ago, on 15 May, it almost came to a head when the Estonian navy attempted to board a Russian oil tanker belonging to the ‘shadow fleet’ that was suspected of circumventing sanctions. The media concealed the risk of escalation posed by the attack. The incident also highlights the explosive nature of the sanctions adopted today by the EU against ships used by what it calls a shadow fleet for oil exports that are not owned or insured by Western shipping companies.

Frankfurter Rundschau: ‘Good cop, bad cop’ “Good cop, bad cop” theory

The managing director of the Munich Security Conference, Benedikt Franke, opposes condemning Trump. He believes that the “good cop, bad cop” theory (...) is the best explanation for what we are currently seeing. Europe and the US have agreed on a dual strategy towards Russia. After the telephone call between US President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, there is still no willingness to agree to a ceasefire in the Ukraine war. However, Trump is not drawing any conclusions from this, such as new US sanctions against Russia.

‘A Trump who keeps the door open for Russia, who gives Putin every opportunity, and Europeans who have to try to put Ukraine in the best possible negotiating position and show Putin the limits.’

 European politicians such as Merz and Macron, on the other hand, would play the role of ‘bad cop.’ This includes threatening Russia with sanctions and enforcing them, keeping the pressure on Putin.

Whether this is true or whether he just wants to keep the West together remains to be seen. Trump was elected with a mandate for peace in the United States. In the EU, almost all politicians are in favour of escalating the war. Their sanctions against ships carrying Russian oil (the ‘shadow fleet’), for example, could quickly lead to a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia. A few days ago, on 15 May, it almost came to that when the Estonian navy attempted to board a Russian oil tanker belonging to the ‘shadow fleet’ that was suspected of circumventing sanctions. The media concealed the risk of escalation posed by the attack.