Massive rearmament of NATO, which already has a far superior military advantage! 15 German security experts warn of an impasse. They call for compromises to end the war & diplomacy & armscontrol

‘The current security policy debate in Germany has left moderation and moderation, it says in an appeal published on Tuesday. The letter, entitled ‘Rational Security Policy Instead of Alarmism’, also states that there is a threat from Russia. However, ‘a Russia that is having great difficulty achieving its goals in Ukraine is a manageable military threat’. The current widespread panic, accompanied by a gigantic debt for rearmament, does not solve Europe's security problems. Furthermore, NATO is today and will remain in the foreseeable future much stronger than Russia in practically all military matters.

Berliner Zeitung, appeal: security experts warn against scaremongering about Russia – ‘dangerous deadlock’ (excerpts): ‘The final trigger for the appeal was the statements of our colleague Sönke Neitzel,’ Varwick told the Berliner Zeitung. A few days ago, Neitzel had publicly spoken of ‘last summer of peace’ that would remain for us before Russia launches an attack on NATO countries in Europe. ‘But the Spiegel cover story on military preparedness and the question of whether we are willing to send our children to war also prompted us to make the appeal,’ Varwick explained further.

Instead of falling back on ‘alarmism and panic’, the signatories call for ‘ending the war in Ukraine by means of clever political compromises through negotiations and then, on the basis of existing strengths, to strive for a stabilisation of the European security architecture’. To achieve this, the focus should not only be on rearmament and war preparations, but arms control, confidence-building measures and diplomacy must also play a central role again. Otherwise, the current course will lead to a ‘dangerous impasse’.

Call: Security experts warn against Russia panic-mongering – ‘dangerous impasse’

The call in its entirety: 

The current debate on security policy in Germany has lost its sense of proportion and moderation. There is no dispute about the need for a Bundeswehr capable of defence and an improvement in Europe's security policy capabilities. This includes sensible investments in defensive equipment for the armed forces, which acts as a deterrent without further exacerbating the security dilemma, as well as a unified European security and defence policy. However, the alarmism currently widespread in some political and media circles is not plausible and is not based on any serious threat analysis. Some security policy experts are talking themselves into a frenzy, seconded by incomprehensible secret service assessments of Moscow's aggressive plans against the West. There is no doubt that Russia poses a threat to European security, and aggressive intentions that go beyond Ukraine cannot be completely ruled out – even if hybrid threats are more plausible than classic military ones. However, a sober look at Russia's economic and military capacities as well as its (realisable) intentions shows that there is little to suggest that Russia could or would attack NATO militarily on its territory. A Russia that is having great difficulty achieving its goals in Ukraine is a manageable military threat. Furthermore, NATO is and will remain far stronger than Russia in practically all military respects. This applies even if only the spending and equipment of the European states, including the UK, are added together. At the same time, there are significant weaknesses in European armies, including in air defence, drones and ammunition, but these can be remedied – which also costs money. Without a reliable American security guarantee, Europe must reposition itself in terms of security policy. Modern societies are also vulnerable, for example with regard to attacks on critical infrastructures or in the cyber domain, but also in terms of internal social cohesion. However, the current widespread panic, accompanied by a gigantic debt for rearmament, does not solve Europe's security problems. It would be more important to end the war in Ukraine through clever political compromises and negotiations, and then to strive to stabilise the European security architecture on the basis of existing strengths, in which not only rearmament and war preparation, but also the second pillar of security policy – arms control, confidence-building measures and diplomacy – play a central role again. Time is of the essence – alarmism and panic lead to a dangerous dead end.

 STATEMENT ‘RATIONAL SECURITY POLICY INSTEAD OF ALARMISM’, 30 MARCH 2025 Prof. em. Dr Michael Brzoska, former Scientific Director of the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy Hamburg (IFSH) • Detlef Dzembritzki, former Member of the German Bundestag and Honorary Chairman of the United Nations Association of Germany (DGVN) • Dr Hans-Georg Ehrhart, former Head of Research at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy Hamburg (IFSH) • Prof. em. Dr Christian Hacke, University of Bonn • Prof. em. Dr Götz Neuneck, former Deputy Director of the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy Hamburg (IFSH) • Prof. em. Dr August Pradetto, Helmut Schmidt University of the Federal Armed Forces Hamburg • Prof. Dr Conrad Schetter, University of Bonn and Director of the Bonn International Centre for Conflict Studies (BICC) • Prof. Dr Klaus Schlichte, University of Bremen • Brigadier General (retired) Reiner Schwalb • Prof. em. Dr. Dieter Segert, Universität Wien • Prof. em. Dr. Michael Staack, Helmut-Schmidt-Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg • Oberst a.D. Ralph Thiele, Publizist • Prof. Dr. Johannes Varwick, Universität Halle-Wittenberg und Präses des Wissenschaftlichen Forums Internationale Sicherheit (WIFIS) • Prof. em. Dr. Elmar Wiesendahl, eh. Director at the Führungsakademie der Bundeswehr in Hamburg • Prof. em. Dr. Herbert Wulf, eh. Director of the Bonn International Centre for Conflict Studies (BICC). ViSdP: Prof. Dr. Johannes Varwick, Martin-Luther-Universität Halle-Wittenberg, Institut für Politikwissenschaft, Lehrstuhl für Internationale Beziehungen und europäische Politik, Steintorcampus, D-06099 Halle (Saale).

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